“It’s like discovering plutonium by accident!” -George Costanza

August 21, 2008

A Few Speculators Dominate the Vast Market for Oil Trading
How is speculation driving up the price of oil? Ask Goldman Sucks (You could ask Enron but they’re dead, yet their legacy lives on!). [Jesse's Café Américain]

“Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

“But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol’s books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising to the commodities markets was the massive size of Vitol’s portfolio — at one point in July, the firm held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.”

Ay caramba!


Even a broken clock is right twice a day
Myron Scholes (Long Term CapitalManagement) predicted “the yearlong credit squeeze will inflict more pain on the world economy and financial markets.” [Bloomie]

“The crisis is ‘not over and I’m not exactly sure when it’s going to end,” Scholes said today at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel laureates in economics. McFadden said in an interview ‘that as the crisis continues you will see a lot of business failures.’ “

No, ya think? Way to call ‘em as you see ‘em, Mr. Nobel Laureate. Even I could see this coming 2-1/2 years ago, and I ain’t got no formal ecumenical edumacation in the arts of debt money thievery intelligent markets highly efficient markets dollar cost averaging borrowing money because I don’t have any today to buy things I don’t really need to impress people I don’t even know financial engineering alchemy.

Myron, if I may be permitted to use the familiar tone your laureate-ship, I think this guy is wise, you should listen to him:

“It’s not over until it’s over.” -Yogi Berra


Oil, Dollar Lead Commodities Index Toward Biggest Weekly Gain in 33 Years [Bloomie]

Jim “Commodites get me hard”  Rogers interview [Money Morning]


America: playing musical deck chairs on the Titanic since 2000.


The enemy within

August 21, 2008

I have met our dinner, and it is us
Tanta at Calculated Risk examines Sheila Bair’s Modest Proposal to turn “stated income” homedebtors into home renters owners except there is just one slight catch: they still can’t afford it, those bloody turnips! [Calculated Risk]


FNM and FRE acted like hedge funds, and their executives made out like bandits with tremendous bonuses ultimately, as it turns out, at public expense
Hanky Panky
desperately wanted the bailout bill passed so he could offset his friends potential losses on Phanny and Fraudie losses in the bond market. Rich people should not have to lose money, it is simply un-American. Who says we don’t take care of our own? [Market-ticker]


Who’s visiting Hanky-Panky for a spanky?
Freddie Mac Reported to Be Meeting Treasury [Nakedcapitalism]


Citing Joseph Schumpeter, the economist, Tom Wolfe said, “Stocks and bonds are what he called evaporated property. People completely lose touch of the underlying assets. It’s all paper - these esoteric devices. So it has become evaporated property squared. I call it evaporated property cubed.”


Woe

August 21, 2008

Look who is shedding shares/options faster than an orange thing with orange highlights: Why, it’s Meg Whitman! [Mish]

For FNM and FRE the next big hurdle in the Pre-Depression (v. 2.0) Olympics: a little heavy lifting (I love a good mixed metaphor,don’t you?) Fannie and Freddie have a looming $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem. [Mish][Nakedcapitalism]

Bond Market to (Socialist Hero) Paulson: Drop Dead
[Nakedcapitalism][Bloomberg]

They call him Dr. Doom
Nouriel Roubini is an economist with a difference. He tells the truth, like it is, no sugar-coating, free from log-rolling, no ivory tower prognostications, no sheep entrails or crystal balls used in his research… [NYT]


Foreclosure heaven

August 20, 2008

What do YOU owe your government?

August 5, 2008

Outasight. Our national debt: Outasight. [Offical site]


A correction is good for the economy

August 4, 2008

Next?

All this housing doom and gloom has got people anxious, bitter, nervous. C’mon people, it’s only money! A house price crash wouldn’t be a disaster for most folks. Au contraire. It gives some folks a reason to exit, and others a reason to enter a market that has been, let’s face it, unrealistic (I am a master of understatement, am I not?).

Let’s reframe this as an opportunity to right some wrongs.

A housing price crash would:

  • benefit people with means to afford a house, forced to the sidelines because of a bubble
  • stimulate the rest of economy, which has been ignored as much as the FIRE was favored
  • allow the opportunity to restore sound fundamentals to our ailing banking system
  • put an end to this naked power grab by the unaccountable-to-anyone Federal Reserve, Inc.

C’mon, you knew it couldn’t last forever!

[fool uk][hat tip]


He voted against it

August 1, 2008

Wow, someone who actually speaks to the issues the bailout bill has, and challenges the “features” crammed in (hidden) by the head of the IRS (why does Hank-Panky wants to record our credit card transactions?), some of which have absolutely nothing to do with housing, but which might not qualify as constitutional because they are an invasion of privacy- all in the name of bailing out some rich folks (some people just never lose!).

Sen. Jim Demint favors taking away FNM & FRE ability to lobby Congreff, but unfortunately was not allowed to be added (Harry Reid wouldn’t even allow a vote- he’s one corrupt cunt isn’t he?).

Like Jim Bunning (who strangely abstained from voting- I’m reevaluating my opinion about him for that), Sen. DeMint is one of only a few who just didn’t rollover because he was itching to get outa town- simply ignoring their responsibility to question anything about this momentous and gargantuan steaming pile of legislation, which, like the so-called Patriot act, was a rush job.

Those motherfuckers which voted for this stinky piece of legislation deserve to be voted out, especially those two Cunts from California(tm).

Senator Jim DeMint, South Carolina,  thanks for doing your job. Enjoy a Burgie(tm)- you deserve it!

[Hat tip] [Bush & conservatives, the love affair is over]


What’s in the bailout bill?

July 31, 2008

Was Not a Rush Job

1. Home sale exclusion rule was modified

“Under the new rule, the owner only gets a percentage of the exclusion based on a ratio of how long the property is their primary residence divided by how long they owned the property. This prevents people from moving into vacation homes or rental units for two years and then obtaining the entire exclusion.” [Calculated Risk]

2. Fed Loans to Failed Banks Made Easier by Fannie-Freddie Rescue

“In the rescue signed into law by President George Wanker. Bush yesterday, the Fed will no longer have to pay penalties on loans it makes to institutions taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.” [Bloomberg]

Hidden in the housing legislation, down in the small print, is a provision that removes penalties on the Fed for loans it makes to FDIC dependent banks. In sum, it gives the Fed latitude to prop up the US banking system with its balance sheet. This would be scarier if the Fed’s balance sheet hadn’t already been riddled with toxic waste from Wall Street. [Some Assembly Required]

Anticipating another big bang are you, Mr. Bukkake?

See also Commentary at Market-Ticker Forum

3. All credit card transactions are to be recorded by the IRS
Nothing like a bit of surveillence to brighten your day - Forever and ever and ever and ever and ever.

4. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, will be given unlimited access to the U.S. Treasury without requiring any further approval from Congreff.
An unlimited line of credit? Isn’t that the same as a blank checkbook? You don’t suppose they’ll ever use it to the same extent the people supposedly being bailed out did, do you? Huh?

5.  Number of households targeted to be saved by this legislation: 400,000. Number of households likely in trouble: 3,000,000.
You know what they say, he who panics first gets his money.

6. The U.S. national debt ceiling will be raised by $800 billion, which suggests that the bailout is expected to cost a lot more than the country was being told or the media was reporting. Oh, so there is a theoretical limit as to how much Congreff can spend. Until they need to raise it. Duh.

7.  As Sen. Jim DeMint (R- SC) points out (here, above), FNM and FRE will not be retstrained from lobbying Congress for favors, etc. (”campaign contributions”).
Which is partly what got us into this mess in the first place.

For a deeper look into the baiout bill’s entrails, see Dr. Housing Bubble. Be sure to check out the income disparity chart (Gini Coefficient) at the end of the post- quite an eye-opener.

*UPDATE*
This bailout bill won’t help homeowners much, according to Lou Barnes [hat tip]. When a homedebtor’s APR is resetting, the “new payment under the federal program (a 30-year fixed with mandatory FHA insurance) would be … (b)etter than the reset, but still a big increase. (Peter Viles)”

Who does the bill help? Ask MER, JPM, GS, WB, BAC, WM, IMB, et al, who will be able to take advantage of this bill’s new conforming cap of $600k to “sell” all the fucked CDO’s (a.k.a. “toilet paper”) on their books to US bagholders (a.k.a. “raping the taxpayer”, i.e. you and me).

Will add as found… check back often!

The repugnant bailout nation - Commentary

It’s at times like these that makes me wonder: What does Fleckie think?

“The Fed’s money-printing apparatus has been checkmated by roaring inflation. None of Paulson’s cockamamie schemes, from super SIVs to bailing out Fannie and Freddie (after Bennie and the boys at the Fed bailed out Bear Stearns), will help the economy. Yet we must continually endure the cheering by stock market operators every time this country, the supposed bastion of free enterprise, “successfully” takes another step in its move to nationalize all losses that are inconvenient to those in power.

“That brings me to an absolutely brilliant — though nauseating, for what it revealed about our government — article written by Paul Gigot in July 23’s Wall Street Journal: “The Fannie Mae gang.” This ought to be mandatory reading for everyone in America. It detailed the hardball thuggery, arm-twisting and insidious interlocking relationships among, for example, former Fannie Mae Chairman Franklin Raines, former Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank that have helped create the monsters called Fannie and Freddie” [Bill Fleckenstein]

Plaudits for Hanky Panky?
It was pointed out to me yesterday by someone with cable that on CNBS yesterday Hank Pankyulson was called, and I believe this to be correct, a “Capitalist Hero.”

Okay, I’m back, I suddenly had to vomit, but I’m okay.

From the always relevant Market-Ticker [Forum], let’s put this little exercise in mutually beneficial cock-sucking into the proper perspective, shall we?

His leadership of Goldman Sucks qualifies him as one of the creators of the entire housing market slash debt debacle. That they are patting him on the back for fixing this mess he had a hand in creating is all the more absurd.

“CNBS lauding Hank Paulson as the savior of our economy.
They seem to forget that he ran the firm that created the majority of the worthless crap which has now been foisted on the American Taxpayer.
Hank was the guy who called the problem “CONAINTED” AT $50 Billion. Hell, Merrill alone has written off more than $50 billion.
Who amongst us couldn’t solve the ills of the world if they had an open checkbook to the American Taxpayer?
And finally, lest we forget, that shit that Hank and his buddies foisted off on the Fed is, if you use Merrill’s pricing, worth about $.20 on the dollar…or about $320 Billion less than what they are telling the people it is worth.
And that is before we spend another trillion dollars to bail our Freddie and Fannie.
Or deal with the shit from Bear Stearns.
Yup.
Great job Hank.
You truly are a notorious American.”

-TBear

When Dr. Doom speaks, we should listen [Globe and Mail]

“The government doesn’t have the balls to raise taxes. It’s going to print the money. It’s going to destroy the currency,” he says.

During the Depression of the 1930s, at least people who held cash made out okay. Because prices were falling, their money actually bought more. But if Mr. Schiff is right and the U.S. is heading into a period of hyperinflation, then even the most prudent savers will see their wealth eviscerated.

Well, he has been right so far…

Didn’t Ben Bukkake say something about helicopters dropping dollars (”Federal Reserve, Inc. Notes”) into the economy to fight deflation?

Banana, meet Republic…


“Thankfully, in a fiat money system, the lender of last resort doesn’t have to worry about running out of money to lend. Do they?” -Tim Iacono


Whas happenin’?

July 29, 2008

A seller financed sale is still a sale

“Merrill will provide financing for about 75 percent of the purchase price”

& at $0.22 on the dollar … or to extrapolate, 30.6 B of CDO’s for 1.68 B isn’t this more like $. 055 on the FRN? IOW, a plum nickel?

Smells like desperation to this flared nostril.

Goddamn bloggers have ruined MER by making them sell before they wanted to. [/sarcasm]

Mervyn’s biggest closeout sale ever [WSJ]

Our Rant du jour comes from Barry Ritholtz’ blog The Big Picture:

“There is no doubt as to who foisted these losses on Merrill: Rumor-mongers, Short-sellers, and al-Qaeda. Management obviously had nothing to do with this. Hence, the SEC should be spending most of its budget, manpower, and time investigating those issues.” [Merrill's $5.7B Write-Down]

It’s an embarrassment that the people we elected have placed cronies in appointments that aren’t serving the people, or the country, just a few special interests.

More Merrill by Mish:

That $2.5 billion is because of ratchet provisions. Mother Merrill is really only raising $6 billion.

The market cap of Merrill Lynch is $23.97 billion. Mother Merrill has raised $30 billion since December. It is taking herculean capital raising efforts to keep the good ship Merrill afloat.

Today in No good deed goes unpunished … [MSNBC] [WaPo]


“The good news is the worst is behind us, the bad news is it’s gaining on us.”


Here’s how to get your bailout bucks

July 29, 2008

Be a name player (Wells, BofA, Wachovia, WaMu, IndyMac, Cuntrywide), not some fly-by-night mortgage brokerage (Ameriquest Mortgage Co., New Century Financial and Fremont Investment &Loan R.I.P.).

Potential "Buyers"

Get your players (Broker, Escrow officer, Appraiser, all helpfully speaking Spanish and able to spot a straw buyer at 30 paces) lined up and ready to take advantage of the newly re-constituted entities which purchase the mortgages you’ve underwritten without scrutiny (”GSE’s”).

Have your team offer the marks:

to pay the first three mortgage payments

a 52″ flat screen TV

cash back at closing !

Have a fresh script of lines prepared should anyone ask about the validity or of such loans, e.g.:

“It sounds to me like the seller helped out,” she said. “If someone gave them $125,000, what’s the problem? That’s a beautiful thing, if you ask me.”

Sell the loan to the taxpayers via the newly Federally backed Phony or Fraudie (erm, sorry, that’s Fannie and Freddie).

Watch your earnings grow as you sell more and more ‘distressed’ properties far above market to an unending supply of dishwashers, garment workers, day laborers, etc. … meanwhile the debt burden pushes the country into recievership- but hey, that’s not your problem!.

You’ve won! Time for your team to collect. What’s that? The money you’ve managed to scam earn is now worth less than the paper it’s printed on? You want to know who you can sue?

[OCRegister]