Rogers and Soros

Together again in this post only (Exclusive!), though in different videos.

The usual Jim Rogers plug for commodities (hint: coffee, sugar, cotton, and soybeans are still near market lows) so if you been there, done that, f-fwd to the 5:00 minute mark for the laugh o’d da day, where Jim calls Ben Bukkake a not nice name on the Youtube.

George Soros has a book out and Financial Times [FT] has a three part video interview. After viewing part one, look to the right hand side of the browser window for links to parts two and three. Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture.

More recent Soros interviews herehere.

Growth Industry
Bankruptcy fillings up 30% YoY, which is strange when you think about the intent of the 2005 laws revised by Congreff and written by the banking industry (“let’s work together to make this even harder to do“).

As Mish points out (“Actually the law never worked.“), sure there was initally a tapering off of new filings. As expected, there was a feeding frenzy before the law took effect (people aren’t dumb about these matters).

But then last year something unexpected happened. New filings actually went higher.

So the combined pressures of unemployment, falling house prices, raising gas prices, higher-than-admitted inflation, are obviously effecting more folks than just those in the far outer commuter belts.

Live Rent Free! Ask me How!
Yes thaaaat’s right, now you too can live without having to pay that nasty landlord rent! Hey your neighbor probably isn’t, why should you!

Do I hear you asking me How? Well I’ll tell ye- It’s easy!

First, stop paying your mortgage and let your lender foreclose on your mortgage… now it’s their problem!

Wait! What! Am I hearing you right!

Yes you are!

April 4 [Bloomberg] — Banks are so overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis they’ve started to look the other way when homeowners stop paying their mortgages.

Is WaMuuu the sound a dying cow makes?
If Washington Mutual wasn’t in dire straits, would they need an infusion of capital?

Shareholders have already lost 74% of their value in the last year. If Texas Pacific Group ponies up that much needed 5 Billion dollars, that will only dilute their equity even further.

Analysts are becoming more bearish about Washington Mutual’s prospects because of higher credit costs. Frederick Cannon of Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. told clients last week he estimates the company will post a loss of $3.15 a share this year (as of today it’s just under $12/share), compared with his earlier prediction of $1.45. [Bloomberg]

ALSO Mish weighs in on this issue.

UPDATE: WaMu to Get $7 Billion Infusion; Bank Slashes Dividend, Posts Loss [WSJ]

Yesterday it was $5 B. Today (8 Apr. 2008) it is reportedly $7 B. Anyone else notice a subtle trend? When losses and infusions get reported, they start with a low number which sounds like a lot but isn’t shocking or unexpected; then (often on a Friday afternoon) it’s a bigger number than previously stated, and sometimes it’s so big your jaw drops, but you gulp and get on with things; sometimes IT’S A REALL BIGGER NUMBER than expected and the rest of the people in the room get real quiet.

I think they PR flacks have been liberally utilizing Liz Kubler-Ross’ 5 stages of grief so as not to disturb the delicate condition of the market.

Just a theory.

Yes they are THAT GOOD
Just how effing good are those equity analysts who elbow each other aside to get face time on that fantasy game show known as CNBC (and other media outlets)?

They spend a great deal of time spellcasting forecasting on their little crystal balls pimping pumping pandering on your t.v. hoping to sound authoritive and confident and all bullish but somebody went and analyzed their track records for accuracy, and well, maybe some of them should join Henry Blodgett in Securities Siberia:

April 7 — When Wall Street’s almost 1,800 equity analysts figured U.S. earnings growth for the third quarter of 2007, they were 8.2 percentage points too high. Forecasts for the fourth quarter were wrong, too, overestimating profits by 33.5 percentage points, the biggest miss ever. [Bloomberg]

Or to paraphrase Marion Berry:

Bitch set me up.

If you watch one GooTube Video today…
It should be this one by Karl Denninger who sums up the problems in the credit (debt) and bond markets in a relatively-to-the-complexity-of-its-subject succinct 30 minutes:

[Market Ticker]

Please. God. Just. One. More. Bubble.


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